Friday, September 23, 2011

Trent's Touchdown: Six Week 4 College Football Games to Watch

Is it Week 4 of the college football season already? This week, the talk hasn’t been about the early season showdowns in the SEC, ACC, and Big 12, but about realignment. With the possible expansions for both the ACC and Pac 12, everyone has been talking about possibilities and consequences. For now though, the talk has died down some, but more on that later. Now, on to the Touchdown:


1) No. 14 Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama – 3:30 PM on CBS

How can you not get excited about a SEC West showdown? One reason not to is the fact that it’s on CBS and I have to deal with Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson. How about ESPN loan out Nessler and Blackledge for this and we all walk away happy?

This is really a tale of two different offenses. The Tide are going to do all they can to limit the weakness of A.J. McCarron. While he has talent, he’s not ready to carry this offense. The Tide are going to depend on Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy to run the ball to soften up the Arkansas defense.

That shouldn’t be too hard, considering Arkansas has a poor rush defense. The Razorbacks gave up over 450 yards of rushing to Troy. While defense may not be the strong suit of Arkansas, they do have a dynamic offense.

The Razorbacks have one of the best passing offenses in the country, led by Tyler Wilson. Wilson’s issue is accuracy, which is not a problem you want against the tough Alabama defense. While they have a competent running back in Ronnie Wingo, expect Arkansas to throw early and often.

Arkansas will want to make this into a shootout, which will favor them. Alabama will want to slow it down and grind it out, which will favor them. As much as I like Arkansas, I think Alabama has this one, but expect it to stay close. Roll Tide!


2) No. 7 Oklahoma State at No. 8 Texas A&M – 3:30 PM on ABC

We have a top tier Big 12 matchup just days after Texas greed scuttled a plan to blow up the Big 12. Oklahoma State was all ready to jump to the Pac 12 and A&M is already off to the SEC, but for now we have to deal with the facts of this game.

Offensively, it’s tough to find a better team than Oklahoma State. They are in the top 10 in a handful of offensive categories. They kind of remind me of that Graham Harrell/Michael Crabtree Texas Tech team from a few years ago. However, appearances can be deceiving.

Brandon Weeden, while having a completion percentage over 70 percent, has an interception problem. Since the Cowboys are a pass happy team, it doesn’t bode well for them. While the offensive line is competent, they’ll have issues stopping the rush of Texas A&M.

Ryan Tannehill, on the other hand, has the ability to keep the ball out of the defenses hands. Tannehill also has the added benefit of having Cyrus Gray in the backfield, who is almost a guarantee to get over 100 yards rushing. The Aggies shouldn’t have much issue moving the ball against a lackluster Cowboy defense.

Much like the Razorbacks, Oklahoma State forgoes defense and wins games by just outscoring their opponents. While working against lesser teams, they will have issues against teams that have a solid defense, like Texas A&M. Expect it to stay close throughout, but the Aggies prevail in the end.


3) No. 11 Florida State at No. 21 Clemson – 3:30 PM on ESPN

Clemson has a massive win over Auburn, but that was just the first of the three games in a row that will push the Tigers to their limits. FSU is facing problems of their own on the injury front after their loss last week to top ranked Oklahoma.

Clemson answered all the doubters last week with their two touchdown victory over Auburn, after being down by two touchdowns themselves earlier in the game. Tajh Boyd had nearly 400 yards passing and 4 touchdowns to end the defending National Champions 17 game winning streak. The one sour note for Clemson in that game was their lackluster defense.

As for Florida State, the team doctor should be able to afford a yacht considering all the injuries that team is dealing with. Most importantly, E.J. Manuel has a sprained non-throwing shoulder, which could keep him out or limit his effectiveness in the game on Saturday. The Seminoles also have injury issues at wide receiver and running back.

FSU can exploit the Clemson defense, but they need to stay mistake free and keep the ball out of Boyd’s hands. FSU also needs to keep play-making wide receiver Sammy Watkins under wraps, after he dominated against Auburn’s secondary. FSU hasn’t won in Death Valley since 2001. I think that is a streak Clemson will help continue this week, but it’ll be a close game.


4) No. 2 LSU at No. 16 West Virginia – 8:00 PM on ABC

Of the many realignment rumors over the past week, one that sticks out is West Virginia’s possible move to the SEC if the Big East falls apart. This game could be a preview of future SEC conference battles if that comes to pass.

To start off, I think I owe an apology to Jarrett Lee. I once compared his play to eating rancid meat. He’s actually not half bad. He reminds of Trent Dilfer during the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl year. He won’t win games for you, but he won’t lose them for you either.

The key to victory for LSU is their defense. They are one of the best defensive teams in the country and proved that in Week 1 against Oregon. They are going to have an equally tough challenge against West Virginia.

West Virginia really doesn’t have a running game to speak of. The basis offensive strategy for the Mountaineers is to give the ball to Geno Smith and tell him to throw it. Giving WVU credit, it’s worked for them, as they are 6th in the country in passing yards per game. Unfortunately for WVU, a one dimensional offense will not work against LSU.

I see the LSU defense causing West Virginia fits and Jarrett Lee using great field position to score offensive points. Expect LSU to win this by at least a touchdown.


5) Vanderbilt at No. 12 South Carolina – 7:00 PM on ESPN2

I’ve been doing the Touchdown for close to 6 years now and I think this is the first time Vanderbilt has ever made it. Congratulations Commodores.

Vanderbilt has flown under the radar starting out 3-0, beating quality opponents like UConn and Ole Miss. The defense for Vandy is going to be the key. They create loads of turnovers and the offense has the ability to capitalize. Expect Vandy to run the ball a lot on offense, as quarterback Larry Smith isn’t exactly wowing people with his abilities.

Speaking of inconsistent quarterbacks, I’m convinced the Stephen Garcia has two settings: Heisman and Spaz. Garcia was in “spaz” mode against Navy last week so the offense turned to Marcus Lattimore to run the ball (246 yards rushing on 37 carries). Expect more of the same from Lattimore this week, considering Vandy leads the FBS in interceptions.

South Carolina seems to want to play every game with a degree of difficulty. Every game this year has been closer than it should have been. It’ll come back to bite them at some point. I think South Carolina wins it, but it’ll be closer than anyone expects.


6) No. 10 Oregon at Arizona – 10:15 PM on ESPN2

Last year I had a man-crush on Jake Locker, this year it’s Nick Foles. Expect lots of passing, lots of offense, and an Arizona loss. With all that said, it should be a fun game.


Extra Point:

Earlier this week, I had written, in my mind, a nice article on the facts and speculation of college football realignment. Not 24 hours later, the Pac 12 said “no thanks” to Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, thereby blowing up my article.

The reason is the odious Longhorn Network. If you are not accustomed to the Longhorn Network, picture the Big Ten Network, if it only focused on Ohio State. Basically, when Texas and ESPN developed the idea, it was a big middle finger to the rest of the Big 12.

The main reason Nebraska bolted to the Big Ten was that it was tired of being treated like a second class citizen. Once Nebraska left, I figured that the other dominos would fall. While a team like Baylor may not have the cache to find another top flight conference, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M could surely find a new place.

The Aggies were the first out of the shoot with an invite to join the SEC. This, along with the previous defections of Nebraska and Colorado, brought the Big 12 down to nine teams and on the precipice of implosion. This was why Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech all decided to talk to the Pac 12 about a super-conference.

The major stumbling block and eventual deal-killer was the Longhorn Network. Yet again, the monument to Texas self-absorption proved too much for some to handle. The reasoning from the Pac 12 was sound. They didn’t want two separate revenue models, one for Texas and a different one for the remaining fifteen teams.

So, here’s the deal. If you live in Big 12 Country and you love the conference and are scared that it will self-destruct with teams joining other conferences and natural rivalries being lost, you get a convenient scapegoat. Don’t blame Nebraska, Colorado, or Texas A&M. Blame the University of Texas and the Longhorn Network. Instead of “hook’em horns”, flash them a whole new hand gesture.

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