College Football Realignment: 2011 Edition

If you thought the first round of realignment in college football was crazy, the second round is chaotic. It is hard to separate fact from speculation and the good from the bad. So, we’re going to dive right in and take a look at this by conference and see who comes out on top and who is left in the dust.

ACC:

Fact:

The ACC will gain both Pittsburgh and Syracuse. The timing depends on other factors involving the Big East, Big 12, and Pac 12 to be discussed later. The longest it would take would be 27 months, due to Big East Conference bylaws.

Speculation:

UConn and Rutgers are both in talks to join the ACC. It is looking increasingly likely that this will happen. Another wrinkle is the fact that Notre Dame, if feeling they couldn’t make it as an independent, they would first look to the ACC before the Big Ten.

End Result:

So far, it’s a win for the ACC. The conference looked on the brink of collapse at the beginning of the season, with Miami facing the death penalty and talks of Clemson moving to the SEC. Now, the ACC is looking like it’ll have a presence all up and down the Eastern seaboard.

If they can pull in UConn and Rutgers, they’ll be the first super-conference. I can’t be the only one excited about the possibility of a super-conference. Sixteen teams battling for a conference crown. This is good stuff.

SEC:

Fact:

The SEC is adding its 13th member with Texas A&M. Additional candidates will pop up once everything shakes out.

Speculation:

Two top teams on the SEC radar are West Virginia and Missouri. If the Big East and Big 12 merger or implode, look for WVU to definitely make the move. It would be a smart pick-up for the SEC. Missouri would be a good addition to the SEC West.

End Result:

Solid results for the SEC so far. Texas A&M is a good pick-up and WVU and Missouri would definitely help solidify the conference as the best in the country. The SEC, like the ACC, will pick who they want and are in the driver’s seat as to who they’ll accept. It’s a good position to be in these trying times.

Big East:

Fact:

The conference is losing Pittsburgh and Syracuse. However, they will be gaining TCU before the next football season.

Speculation:

Doom! The Big East is on the brink of losing UConn and Rutgers. If they go forward with the Big 12 merger, they will most likely lose West Virginia. Of course, this will free up both Pitt and Syracuse to move under the 27 month window.

End Result:

I do not see the Big East surviving. Of course, this is a good thing for college football. The quality of football in that conference was sub-par at best. Although, if the Big 12/Big East merger goes through, I don’t see the quality really picking up.

The one team you feel sorry for is TCU. They wanted a nice easy conference to dominate and get an automatic BCS bid. Now, they’re like the youngest child watching the bitter divorce of their parents. They’re not quite sure what’s going on, but they know they’ll get screwed in the end.

Big 12:

Fact:

Texas A&M has left for the SEC. Texas and Oklahoma have given their Presidents permission to talk to the Pac 12 about joining, which is a move that will bring Texas Tech and Oklahoma State with them.

Speculation:

If the move of the four schools to the Pac 12 goes though, there are a number of things that could happen. There is the possibility of the aforementioned merger with the Big East, in which Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri would absorb all the remaining Big East teams.

The Big 12 could just cease to exist, leaving the above mentioned teams to find their own conferences. Scuttlebutt on Saturday was the Baylor and Iowa State were in talks with the Big East and Missouri is known to fancy the SEC.

End Result:

Not good. While Texas greed is the reason for the end of the Big 12 as we used to know it, it’s almost sad to see the once mighty conference left to scramble for scraps. The best the Big 12 could hope for would be the merger deal, while keeping West Virginia and Missouri. However, I predict that WVU becomes the 14th member of the SEC, while Missouri tries to get into either the SEC or Big Ten.

Pac 12:

Fact:

No moves as of yet. However, the speculation is enough to set the world on fire.

Speculation:

Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech are in talks to move to the Pac 12, making it a super-conference. Texas, as always, still has the ability to scuttle any deal. However, this looks like it might happen.

End Result:

A Pac 16? It’s a no-brainer. If they pull this off, the Pac 16 is the big winner in the realignment shuffle. Oklahoma and Texas are massive prizes and will mean good things for the new conference. The main hurdle is how to make the new conference work. My guess would be that they will make the announcement and the ACC will follow suit.

Also, everyone needs to find a way around the particularly loathsome Longhorn Network, which will have issues considering the Pac 12 already has a conference network. The Pac 12 has the edge here, since they don’t need Texas. However, with the defection of Texas A&M and the fact Missouri wants out, Texas is going to need to do something fast.

End Conclusion:

There are people who are going to support realignment and those against it. It’s like a Presidential Election, there is always going to be a group of people upset by it. However, I see this as a natural evolution of college football.

The problem all started when Texas wanted their own network and the Big 12 decided to let them have it. Nebraska didn’t like it and bolted to the Big Ten. It all started a domino effect. The thing is that as college football becomes big business, schools are going to do what is in their financial best interest (or what they think will be in their financial best interest).

Nebraska was tired of being the red-headed stepchild of the Big 12 and wanted more of the pie. This year, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, and Syracuse all found greener pastures in different conferences. The landscape of college football is changing daily and teams are scrambling to find solid ground.

There are even more possible moves that I didn’t mention above. One interesting possibility is the merger between the Mountain West and Conference USA, which would give the newly formed conference an automatic BCS bid. With the Big East on the verge of losing their automatic bid, this could be huge.

According to a recent poll done by Baylor, 76 percent of college fans would be disappointed with super-conferences. Of course, the poll was done in Big 12 states, so I don’t know how much stock can be put into it. The problem is that this is going to happen. If you could find me one person in the 76 percent who is going to boycott college football because of this, I’ll eat this article. Just make sure you pass me some ketchup.