Clemson Tigers Football: Three Games in Hell

My alternative title for this article was “How Dabo Swinney loses his job”, but decided to be a little optimistic. For the Clemson season, the next three weeks are critical. It is probably one of the toughest three week spans for any team not in the SEC. It will also show if Clemson has decided to be a contender or an also-ran. So, let’s look at these games.

At Home vs. Auburn – September 17:

Clemson gets the defending National Champion after the heartbreaking overtime loss in Auburn last year. It was also the game where Cam Newton decided he needed to be “the man” and carry his team to victory. But that was last year.

Auburn this year has pretty much the same problem last year. They get into close games and hope that someone will bail them out. Unfortunately, Cam Newton is in the NFL. While you would expect more out of a SEC West defense, Auburn can’t stop the run. While this wasn’t an issue last year, that will get them into a mess of trouble this year.

Andre Ellington is going to be the key to a Clemson victory here. He needs to do in this game what he did in last year’s loss to Auburn, which is to gain lots of yards on the ground and beat up the Auburn run defense. This will open up Tajh Boyd to make plays as he should have plenty of time to throw the ball.

The problem Clemson will have is stopping the run. As they’ve had issues against Wofford stopping the run, don’t expect it to be easier when facing Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb. While Clemson will have issues in this game, it is clearly the most winnable of the three.

At Home vs. Florida State – September 24:

One week after Florida State gets top ranked Oklahoma at home, they have to go on the road to Death Valley. I think Clemson’s chances in this game hinge on what Oklahoma does to FSU. If FSU wins, the ride a wave of confidence of knocking off a number 1, if they lose, they could be let down over their chance to move to one of the best teams in the country.

Clemson is going to need a more balanced offensive attack to thwart the FSU defense. Therefore, Tajh Boyd is the key to a Clemson victory here. He needs to be able to successful throw the ball, not take sacks, and generally keep the FSU defense worried about the pass to let Ellington successfully carry the ball.

As far as the defense is concerned, the Clemson defense needs to be more focused on the run. They have had horrible games trying to stop the run and I don’t buy the argument that they were unfocused. E.J. Manuel is not that great of a quarterback and if the defense forces him to have to throw the ball, Clemson should be in a good position. Not saying it’ll happen, but Clemson could win this one. Don’t forget, FSU is a paper tiger.

On the Road vs. Virginia Tech – October 1:

The fifth game on the Virginia Tech schedule is also the first real test the Hokies will face this season, considering the toughest opponent they will have faced before this game is East Carolina. However, this is also the toughest of the three games for Clemson. It’s doesn’t help that the game is in Blacksburg.

Even though Virginia Tech is in a bit of a transition period, they are going to be the toughest ACC opponent Clemson will face this year. The key for Clemson is going to be their run defense. If they can contain David Wilson, they put the game in the hands of the inexperienced and shaky Logan Thomas. Good things will happen at this point.

The Clemson offense will need to play mistake free against the Virginia Tech defense to capitalize. The VT defense was pretty poor last year and they are looking to redeem themselves, as seen with the victory over East Carolina. The big question that still needs to be answered is if Boyd will be the quarterback everyone thinks he can become. Clemson could eke out a victory in this one.

End Result:

Okay, I’m not going to sugar coat this. What I ran through above is best case scenario for Clemson. This is by no means what is going to happen. Clemson has some serious issues in letting bad teams hang around way too long (like last weeks Wofford game). They can’t do this and expect to win and of these games.

Most rational people would say that Clemson either goes 2-1 (at best) or 1-2 (most likely). I think winless or undefeated in these three games is highly unlikely. However, unless Clemson does go 2-1 in this stretch, Dabo Swinney will lose his job at the end of the season.

No matter how good a Clemson team is, they have a knack for losing games they should win. Following these three games, the Tigers have 6 games against ACC opponents (3 at home, 3 on the road), then the end of the year match at South Carolina. Clemson does not run the table in the ACC after these games.

Swinney can salvage his job with an 8-4 season and a back door invitation to the ACC Championship Game. Clemson isn’t going through the front door (issues winning winnable games) and they are going to need FSU to falter somewhere along the way. The key game in this stretch is FSU. They need to beat them to have any hope of making the ACC Championship Game.

We’ll get a picture of Clemson on Saturday at 12 noon against Auburn. We’ll see if this year’s Clemson team is ready to make a step or two forward or if they’re the same as all the other Clemson teams of the past few years. God help us if they find snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.