Friday, October 21, 2011

Trent's Touchdown: Six Week 8 College Football Games to Watch

Here we are at Week 8 of the college football season. Of course, that means that the first BCS standings came out last weekend, but we can get into that later. We have a large slate of conference matchups to look into to, so on to the Touchdown:


1) No. 6 Wisconsin at No. 16 Michigan State – 8:00 PM on ESPN

For all you Wisconsin fans out there, this game is the first time you can actually see if your team is any good. There is no better way to be tested than on the road, in conference, against a particularly nasty defense.

Wisconsin has been absolutely rolling this year, but you need to take their success with a grain of salt. They have played all but one game at home (neutral field against Northern Illinois) and the only quality opponent was an over-hyped Nebraska team that nearly lost at home to Ohio State.

The Badgers do have all the pieces needed that make a Championship team, but we just don’t know if they are actually that good. I’m a huge fan of Russell Wilson, but his numbers were never anywhere near this good when he was at North Carolina State.

Of course, part of his success has to be all the offensive weapons he has at his disposal. Nick Toon is one of the better receivers in the Big Ten and Montee Ball is the best running back in the conference. That will help out any quarterback, even Dayne Crist.

The Spartans, on the other hand, have had a few challenges this year, losing on the road to Notre Dame, but beating Ohio State in Columbus and defeating Michigan at home last week. What was most impressive was the fact that they made Denard Robinson look bad before knocking him out of the game.

The problem all year for Michigan State has been their offense. Kirk Cousins has been steady, but his success last year was due in part to the running game. The running game had been pretty bad for the Spartans before Edwin Baker blew up for 167 yards against Michigan. When the running game is clicking, Cousins can get comfortable and make the throws he needs.

Part of me wants to pick Wisconsin because of MSU’s offensive struggles and the Badgers stifling defense. However, that defense has not faced any real opponents. Michigan State narrowly edges out Wisconsin at home, probably in the last minute.


2) No. 25 Washington at No. 8 Stanford – 8:00 PM on ABC

Wait a minute; Stanford is actually playing a meaningful game before the November 12th showdown against Oregon? The post-Jake Locker Huskies are surprising a lot of people.

This game is actually hard to judge because Stanford hasn’t faced any competition and Washington has only faced Nebraska on the road (and got beaten). You can say that Stanford has an amazing run defense, but I don’t see guys like Juwan Thompson of Duke or Keola Antolin from Arizona lighting the world on fire.

The Stanford run defense will have its hands full with Chris Polk, one of the best running backs in the Pac-12. He is averaging just over 120 yards a game and helps keep the pressure off of Keith Price. Price has been flying under the radar, but he can easily get into a rhythm and will pick apart a defense if given time.

Everyone knows about Andrew Luck, so it seems like a waste to go over all he has going for him. The one thing that needs to be of concern to the Huskie defense is that he doesn’t turn the ball over (6 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio). If Washington wants to win, they need turnovers. Look for the Cardinals to let Stepfan Taylor run the ball so Washington can’t just play the pass.

I actually think it’ll be closer than the point spread thinks it’ll be. Washington can hang around and frustrate Stanford for most of the game, but I think Luck is just too much to handle. Stanford wins, but people will start to take Washington seriously.


3) No. 20 Auburn at No. 1 LSU – 3:30 on CBS

This game just got a heck of a lot more interesting after three players for LSU got suspended for allegedly testing positive for synthetic pot. Off the subject, but what exactly is synthetic pot and how does it differ from the real thing?

So, LSU is now without superstar Tyrann Mathieu, leading rusher Spencer Ware, and reverse defensive back Tharold Simon. This might be a huge issue if this game was against Alabama, but this is Auburn we are talking about.

I’m not trying to diss Auburn, but quarterback Clint Moseley is getting his first collegiate start against LSU. Ask Jacoby Brissett of Florida and Matt Simms of Tennessee how the experience worked out for them. Of course, those changes were due to injury, not ineptitude of the previous starting quarterback.

Moseley does have one saving grace in running back Michael Dyer. Dyer is one of the better running backs in the SEC and did reasonably well against LSU last year. However, last year the key playmaker was Cam Newton.

Offensively, LSU is going to do what it always does, which is slowly and steadily move the ball. The whole LSU philosophy is to slowly break down the other teams will to compete. Expect Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson to grind it out, play a field position game, and not make any stupid mistakes.

I’m actually surprised that the point spread of 21 is not higher. Auburn is going to make dumb mistakes and they are going to turn the ball over. LSU will capitalize on these mistakes. I don’t think LSU will blow them out, but I don’t think it’ll be as close at the score will suggest.


4) No. 4 Oklahoma State at Missouri – 12:00 PM on FX

I promise that this is going to be the last time that I try and sing the praises of Missouri. But when you’re talking about a tough road game for a highly ranked team, I have to write about it.

Oklahoma State has shown no signs of slowing down all year. Even when Brandon Weeden looked human last week against Texas, the team still scored a bunch of points and gained a bunch of yards. With the passing game faltering, the running game and special teams were able to step up to score points.

We also can’t overlook the Cowboys defense. They aren’t great, but they were able to control the Texas offense enough to give Oklahoma State the victory. You don’t always have to be the best, just good enough.

Missouri has multiple ways to test a defense, but they thrive at running the ball, behind running back Henry Posey and quarterback James Franklin. Franklin is also pretty good throwing the ball too, even if he has been throwing to the other team recently (3 of his 4 interceptions have been in the last two games.

Oklahoma State is going to need Weeden to get back to form in order to win at Missouri. That said, I think he does get back on track. However, Missouri has been able to keep their three losses this season close, including a ten point loss to Oklahoma in Norman. Expect another close one, but the Cowboys pull it out in the end.


5) North Carolina at No. 7 Clemson – 12:00 PM on ESPN

After a close call on the road against Maryland, Clemson gets to go home and face a tough North Carolina team. The last thing UNC needed was for wide receiver Dwight Jones to open his yap and motivate the Tigers.

For those of you who don’t know, when Jones was asked about who the best receiver in the ACC was, he said himself. He then went on to explain that Clemson star receiver Sammy Watkins is just a speedster while Jones has more technique and experience. Way to get off on the right foot.

While I like Watkins, I think we should hold off on the C.J. Spiller comparisons until at least his sophomore year. If he’s still taking kick-off returns the distance and pretty much carrying his team to victory, then we start tossing Spiller’s name around.

Everyone has been talking about the explosive offense of Clemson lead by Tajh Boyd, but Byrn Renner is probably the best quarterback in the ACC. His completion percentage and passer rating are the highest in the conference and he hasn’t thrown an interception in October. It also helps he has one of the better wide receivers in the ACC (the previously mentioned Jones) to throw to.

Renner’s big problem is that he doesn’t get enough time to throw the ball. The offensive line is suspect on pass protection and could be the issue for the Tar Heels’. If Clemson is able to shut down running back Giovanni Bernard, it could be a long game from Renner.

As far as Clemson is concerned, they need to work on the defensive issues from last week’s debacle in Maryland. They should be okay since Renner isn’t a running quarterback like C.J. Brown last week. The Tigers should be fine offensively with Boyd, Watkins, Andre Ellington and Dwayne Allen at their skill positions.

Clemson will be challenged by North Carolina, but I fully expect the Tigers to beat them, so long as they don’t look ahead to the showdown with Georgia Tech next week.


6) USC at Notre Dame – 7:30 on NBC

Remember the 2005 USC/Notre Dame matchup that featured Matt Leinhart and Brady Quinn? It ended up being one of the best college football games I’ve ever seen.

This year, we get Matt Barkley and Tommy Rees battling it out to see who can throw this game away. While the smart money is on Rees, never underestimate Matt Barkley’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.


Extra Point:

The first BCS standings of the year have come out and you know what that means. We get tons of articles debating and dissecting the standings. I really don’t have too much of an issue with it for right now. Yes, I think Clemson is a little undervalued and Wisconsin and Boise State are a little overrated, but it’s still early.

Right now, I think we can all agree that whichever two teams of the top four go undefeated deserve to play in the National Championship. While I may be a huge Clemson fan, I accept that an undefeated LSU and an undefeated Oklahoma State deserve to play in the National Championship over an undefeated Clemson.

The same goes for Boise State, Wisconsin, and Stanford. While they may not play in the toughest conferences, their out of conferences schedules are laughable. I’m not going to give Wisconsin, with out of conference foes UNLV and South Dakota, a place over LSU, with out of conference games against Oregon and West Virginia.

However, the rankings actually mean very little right now. We know that at least two of the top 4 will have one loss. We also know that college football is a whacky sport and anything and everything is possible. I could see any team in the top ten emerge to play in the National Championship Game and I wouldn’t be surprised.

It’ll get really fun if there are a bunch of one loss teams at the end of the season and see how that plays out. Even though we all like to complain, most of the time the BCS gets the top two teams correct. As much as I would love a playoff, we would then get into arguments about the teams on outside looking in. Of course, it’s not college football without controversy.

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