Welcome to Week 8 of the college football season. Just so you know I didn’t go absent last week because I was ashamed of my glowing review of Alabama, right before they imploded. It was because it was Grad School Application Time. With one school behind me, I can focus on the Touchdown this week. A good thing too, since the BCS standings made their first appearance of the season. We’ll get to that later, but first, on to the Touchdown:
1) No. 6 LSU at No. 4 Auburn – 3:30 on CBS
How does the old saying go? “It’s better to be lucky than good.” Seriously, I think luck is the only way both of these teams are still undefeated. If it wasn’t for a freshman kicker from Clemson, Stephen Garcia’s inability to hold on to the ball, and Ryan Mallett’s injury, Auburn could very well be 4-3.
As for LSU, well, they really should have lost to UNC, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Florida. Luck is the only reasonable explanation for those wins. Let’s put it this way, I would never expect any team, be it college, high school, or Pop Warner to be 7-0 with Jordan Jefferson prominently involved in the offense.
Les Miles in either a freaking genius (I refuse to call him the Mad Hatter) or he sacrificed small woodland creatures to some dark overlord, because I do not understand how LSU is winning games. The two headed monster of Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee are the scariest QB duo ever…if you’re a LSU fan.
The LSU game plan will be pretty simple. Run the ball on offense, control the ball and slow the tempo, pray they don’t need their QB’s to win it, and contain the Auburn rushing attack. That’s easier said than done.
I’m so close to buying into Auburn, but then I remember that I’ve seen them play, and it’s not that pretty. Their offensive game plan seems to be “let Cam Newton win it.” The kid isn’t Tim Tebow, yet everyone wants to act like he is. Auburn’s problem was highlighted in the Arkansas game. If a team has a fun and gun, freewheeling offense, Auburn is in trouble. Mallett wouldn’t have made the same mistakes that Wilson did, and Auburn would have most likely lost the shoot-out.
LSU always finds a way to win, even against the odds and conventional wisdom. However, on the road against a hyped up Auburn team? That is too much for even Les Miles to overcome.
2) No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 15 Iowa – 3:30 on ABC
Every year, some conference I don’t particularly care for pops up and makes me love every game. This year, it’s the Big Ten. I was waiting for a team to dismantle Ohio State, but figured I’d have to wait until the Iowa game. Thankfully, along came the Badgers.
Wisconsin is a very intriguing team. They are very balanced offensively with a great offensive line. Wisconsin uses the run to open up the passing game, which they did to great effect against Ohio State. The defense will need to stay solid for Wisconsin to have a chance to win this.
Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country, even though they had a tough time stopping the run against Michigan last week. The problem is that even if Iowa stops the run, Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien can beat you with his arm. As for offense, Iowa has the best QB in the Big Ten in Ricky Stanzi, but still run the ball at least half the time, keeping defenses honest.
The main advantage Iowa has here is they are playing at home. I think the game is close throughout, but Iowa comes away with a close victory.
3) No. 1 Oklahoma at No. 11 Missouri – 8:00 on ABC
I could use this whole article ripping apart the fact that Oklahoma is number 1, but why would I waste my time when the Oklahoma defense will put up a pitiful performance against some team and get waxed. I’m just not sure this is the game.
Oklahoma has had a tough time against nearly every time they faced. This makes you wonder what’s happening in Norman. We can’t really pin all of Oklahoma’s troubles on the defense. We can pin most of the problems on the defense. Being honest, the defense is going to be the thing that brings Oklahoma down, because the offense is not built to get into a shoot-out.
Having no defense is fine if you’re a team like Arkansas, that is all about throwing the ball around and if you have a strong-armed QB. The problem is the Oklahoma has always been a defensive minded football team that created turnovers and win the field position battle, making it easier for the offense to run up the score. They don’t have that anymore, so Oklahoma is a house of cards waiting to topple over.
Missouri is really a team that came out of nowhere, considering they really haven’t played anyone. They are hard to judge since you really can’t judge a team that plays McNeese State. Even with the paltry schedule, we do know they have a great defense. They get after the QB in a big way. Offensively, expect QB Blaine Garrett to air it out early and often.
The game rests on the shoulders of DeMarco Murray. If he can establish the run game for Oklahoma and do DeMarco Murray type things, then the Missouri defense is effectively neutralized. However, if Missouri stops him, then Landry Jones needs to be able to step up and make things happen. That is not Jones’ strong suit. The Missouri defense contains Murray and beats Oklahoma.
4) No. 16 Nebraska at No. 14 Oklahoma State – 3:30 on ABC
That sad thing about last week was that I had actually bought into Nebraska. I was very nearly on the bandwagon. That was before they put up that stink job against Texas and once again proved that college football is a wacky sport.
The problem Nebraska faces is the fact they have an amazing defense, but they need the offense to stay on the field and score. Taylor Martinez finally got a taste of a Big 12 defense, when he got cuffed around by Texas. When you can’t run and receivers start dropping passes, it’s easy to get frustrated. You have to wonder if Martinez will be affected from his last game or if he can leave it in the past.
Oklahoma State is on the other end of the spectrum. They’re offense is dynamic, with only Oregon ahead of them in most major offensive categories. They use their offense to cover for the fact that their defense is not really that good. Oklahoma State gives up way to many yards to sketchy teams but it gets overlooked because of guys like Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon, and Kendall Hunter.
Nebraska is built to beat a team like Oklahoma State. The Nebraska defense should be able to moderately contain the OSU offense while Martinez and the Nebraska offense should be able to take advantage of the porous OSU defense. Nebraska wins on the road.
5) Washington at No. 18 Arizona – 10:15 on ESPN
I guess if Nick Foles was going to get injured for Arizona, now would be the best time. The schedule right now isn’t too daunting, but you can’t sleep on Washington.
While Locker isn’t the second coming of Peyton Manning, he is still one of the better QB’s in the nation, even after the debacle early in the season against Nebraska. Washington lives and dies by Locker, so if they want to win, Locker is going to be the guy to get it done for them. One the other side of the ball, the Washington defense is suspect. They give up too many yards and too many points, yet they have beaten both Oregon State and USC this season.
Offensively, Arizona will have some issues moving the ball with Foles out. Expect Grigsby and Antolin to run the ball to take the pressure off of back-up QB Matt Scott. Arizona has a highly ranked defense, but they have yield points when faced with good teams. Arizona is going to need the defense to contain Locker if they hope to win.
Washington seems to know how to win close games this year. Expect a close one in the desert and expect Locker and Washington to pull the dramatic upset.
6) Georgia Tech at Clemson – 3:30 on ABC
For all you Clemson fans out there (and I’m one of them), aren’t you wondering how Clemson is going to blow this matchup against Georgia Tech? You know it’s going to be close and you know Clemson is going to find a way to lose it. So, botched field goal? Late interception by Parker? Fumble by Ellington? The possibilities are endless.
Extra Point:
Well, the first BCS ranking came out last Sunday. As aghast as I was that Oklahoma was number 1, Kirk Herbstreit calmly explained to me on Sunday night why this wasn’t the biggest travesty since Veronica Mars got cancelled. It’s still early and, as Ohio State and Alabama proved; we’re a long way from done.
However, looking at the rankings, I’m once again drawn to the same question I had earlier in the year. Does a one loss Alabama deserve to be ranked higher or lower than an undefeated TCU or Boise State? Let’s look at this all scientific like.
If you are going to argue in favor of Alabama, the conversation begins and ends with strength of schedule. The Alabama schedule is a freaking mine-field, with games against Penn State, Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Miss State, and Auburn. If Alabama makes it through that with one loss, that deserves something.
For TCU, they have Oregon State and Utah. No, seriously, that’s it. I’m not sure if that’s worse or better than the Boise State duo of Oregon State and Virginia Tech. You really can’t fault either team for being in conferences that aren’t that tough, but that doesn’t mean you can reward them either. Last year, Cincinnati, Boise State, and TCU all showed us that schedule strength counts.
Of course, this conversation means nothing if two of the group of Oklahoma, Oregon, Auburn, LSU, and Michigan State win out (with Missouri getting an outside shot). No way the BCS polls have TCU or Boise State ahead of any of those teams if they are undefeated. However, with the BCS, you learn to expect the unexpected.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment